Projected Wins for Bears in 2018

Las Vegas has spoken… after the end of free agency and the 2018 draft, and provided their projected win shares by team right here.  I’ll spare you the drama and let’s look at the NFC North

  • Green Bay Packers – 10
  • Minnesota Vikings – 10
  • Detroit Lions – 8
  • Chicago Bears – 6.5

Now the first problem we have as Bears fans is that the NFC North might be the best division in football, at least in terms of projected wins for the total division.  This sucks for us.  Obviously there is some logic and Las Vegas is a heartless place only in it for making money…

  • The Packers arguably have the best QB in football when Rogers isn’t hurt.  It is pretty bold projecting 10 wins for an otherwise not-great team hoping that your QB is back to full strength but Vegas is giving him the benefit of the doubt. Our fantasy here at Fire Everybody is that Green Bay gives Rogers a monster guaranteed contract and then he is hurt or just a fraction of himself (think Eli Manning or Joe Flacco… it is better if he just soldiers on as a shell of his former self) and then they are saddled with an albatross deal
  • Then you have the Vikings, which put it all together and have a ton of young talent and made it all the way to the NFC title game (hey they should have lost vs the Saints but losing later in the playoffs is just sweeter for us at Fire Everybody).  Now they have placed their complete faith in Kirk Cousins and shipped off their entire cast of former QB’s and gave him a guaranteed contract to boot.  Like the Packers we hope that Vikings fans look back at that monster contract the same way they look at the Christian Ponder pick ha ha
  • And then there is Detroit, who formerly had the highest paid QB in the game with Stafford (still way, way up there), a guy who has won absolutely nothing of note but makes up for it in garbage time and fantasy football stats.  Hoping for nothing but the worst for them now that they picked up New England defensive coordinator who ended the season absolutely getting lit up by the Eagles so hopefully he starts up 2018 picking up on the down note where he ended last year

The Bears are a total crap shoot when looking at performance.  Last year we brought zero innovation from ancient Fox and his coordinators on offense and fielded what is likely the worst crop of NFL receivers (all in) in the modern era.  So now we’ve totally re vamped everything in free agency (and a bit of the draft) with a new coach (who was an offensive coordinator for a few games) and a focus on offensive weapons for Trubisky.

So who the hell knows.  I feel that the Bears will be better than last year (we can’t be worse coached and our receivers literally cannot perform at a lower level) but sadly enough we need to be better relative to our competitors and not the absolute standards as a football team.

My (sad) 2 cents is about 5-6 wins if I was betting.  I think we will be better but hell Rogers is back and our main competitors for 6 of our 16 games (our division) will likely drive about a 1-5 record for the bears.  So then you are about 4-6 or 5-5 (even!) against the rest of the teams we play.

So I guess that means I’m saying the under on 6.5… that’s as a rational person.

But as a fan I want them to win all the games, and I want our divisional rivals to fall into a bottomless well of despair.  It just doesn’t seem that likely next year…

Chicago Seems to be an Irrelevant Franchise

If you live in Chicago you are in the echo chamber about the Bears – Bears news, commentary, predictions, some optimism, and despair.  However – now that I’ve moved out of Chicago, I can see how irrelevant they are on the main stage.  This pains me… and it pains me even more which OTHER franchises seem to stay “top of mind”.

Green_Bay_Sucks

The damn Packers!  Near my place there is a semi-seedy bar covered in flags and what do I spy on top?

I see tourists every day tromping through my neighborhood… often they are wearing gear supporting their pro football or state college team.  I hardly ever see anyone with anything from the Bears (and I’d probably be struck by lightning if I saw anything for the Illini) because the Bears are pretty much unknown here and in most of the country.

It makes sense, because we’ve sucked pretty much the whole time for anyone under, say, 40.  The Bears won in 1985 and that was 30+ years ago so you’d have to be at least old enough to have been part of the media storm to care about them (or be someone who grew up hearing about them all the time).

Not only have we been terrible, pretty much all of our stars on the team are unknown.  It is hilarious that the Bears are reaching way, way back into stars before my time on the new jerseys.  After Walter Payton (note… that was a LONG time ago) there is hardly anyone and even Urlacher is mostly a nobody outside of Chicago.

It is so bad here there isn’t even really a “Bears” bar in Portland… but you can see all sorts of other teams including franchises like the Buffalo Bills and of course the Steelers and Packers.  The Raiders too always band together and that’s a scary bunch.

It doesn’t help that we have had an awful offense this whole time… people do play fantasy football and if we had a lot of stars in that facet of the game we’d probably get more acknowledgment.  And Dan and I have been banging the drum for offense the whole time (and hopeful that Trubisky will bring it).

I have to blame the McCaskey’s for all this.  They’ve had this franchise forever and done nothing with it.  They need to fix it or find someone who will.  And sadly they likely won’t, and will pass this on to various members of their extended clan indefinitely.  And we will remain irrelevant…

 

Free Agency and Draft Open Thread

For all of the hype, both of these events in and of themselves are pretty stupid, but here is an open thread so our tens of readers can talk about all of the great things the Bears did this free agency and draft seasons.

Bears Have A Window Of Four Years

One of our favorite sites is “Over the Cap” which reviews the economics of football. An added bonus is that the head of the site is a Jets fan, so he gets to watch his favorite team essentially do everything wrong with football finances (so far, at least).

There is a great number there – Trubisky at 3.72% of our cap space, with our divisional competitors ranging up to 14.95% for Stafford and Rogers at 11.6% (before his next contract, where he is sure to break the bank). Who knows what Minnesota will do but I hope they break the bank going for Cousins and then they get a mid range QB for what will probably be the largest contract in the history of the NFL.

I’m up in the Pacific Northwest now and watching the Seahawks dismantle their team and start over. Their 3 awesome years coincided with getting a top five QB on the cheap (Wilson) but now that he is getting paid they can’t re sign their stars and are going to let a lot of them go.

Every single Bears fan is like “duh” to this whole thread… we know that bad QB’s kill the team since we’ve lived through generations of them. We also lived through terrible offensive coordinators, such as the immortal Ron Turner, who spurred the original intent of this site (Fireronturner.net will ALWAYS point here). Even today I heard a podcast talking about how terrible Norv Turner was with his 7 step drop like some sort of idiotic time capsule of how the NFL used to work (along with Jeff Fisher a horrendous coach / coordinator). The analysts seriously have to start putting an asterix next to these seasons because they are outliers.

In any case, there is a lot of cause for optimism if we can 1) keep Trubisky from getting killed 2) install a modern offense that actually leverages his talents 3) get an O line that isn’t a fricking turnstyle 4) maybe not have literally the worst receiving corps in the NFL. I know Chicago loves defense but this game is 90% offense… just look at the Super Bowl and most of last years’ playoff games (the ones that mattered, not the horrendous ones like the Bills ha ha).

The NFL is changing FAST. History means… not much. And the NFL is now super stacked in favor of drafting effectively since those positions give you top flight talent on the cheap. And damn have a coach and coordinators into what’s happening right now not based on some idiotic history (I love Gruden talking about bringing back the fullback for the Raiders ha ha).

Nagy May End Up Sucking, But At Least He Showed Up at the Bears

Bears fans may think that we have a proud history and are a storied franchise, but the reality is that we are 33 years away from our last Super Bowl win and haven’t even knocked on the door for the last 10.  Minnesota has a beautiful indoor stadium as we saw last Sunday while Dan and I trudge up 10,000 steps to our seats at the top of a windy outdoor bowl with crappy concessions and not even a place to warm up.

So it didn’t really surprise me when the Bears search, led by a guy with little success in the NFL (Pace) and an accountant who’s done nothing to create a winner (Phillips) found a guy who had been an offensive coordinator at the pro level for half a dozen games to be our head coach, Nagy.  While teams like San Francisco and even the Raiders ($100M!!) paid up for talent, we scraped up someone with nothing to lose at taking a flyer at being an NFL coach who doesn’t mind working for a franchise seemingly going nowhere and led by this diminutive duo.  Hell I was just happy we didn’t get an old blowhard like Jeff Fisher.  Maybe Nagy will at least have an entertaining press conference after each loss most likely.

The guy I thought we should at least try to get was McDaniels.  Sure he flamed out the first time he was a head coach at Denver but he’s learned a lot since then and ran the most fearsome offense ever.  With the NFL’s idiotic “wink wink nudge nudge” model of having coordinators for teams in the playoffs not being able to accept jobs for next year (but they can just sign the day after their team isn’t in the playoffs) – the Colts seemed to one-up the Bears by taking arguably the best candidate out there while we selected a nobody (at least a nobody who wasn’t already a bust or old fart).

But now the jokes’ on Indy.  Ha ha.  Still hate you for beating the Bears after the 2007 season anyways.  But probably there still are a lot of guys out there as candidates who have 6+ games as an offensive or defensive coordinator under their belts, maybe 500 or so.

Another glimmer of laughter was that Detroit is picking up the Patriots defensive mastermind who couldn’t stop the Eagles AT ALL under that Hall of Famer Nick Foles.  Ha ha.

Here at Fire Everybody we get most of our satisfaction from the failures of others since our own hopes have inevitably dashed by injuries, ineptitude and just plain lack of talent.  All the while freezing our asses off in the cheap seats of what soon will be the worst stadium in the NFL (since the San Diego Chargers moved, although the worst day outside in San Diego is usually pretty damn awesome).

Fire Everyone Is Here

Hey everybody.  We changed the domain name “firejohnfox.wordpress.com” to “firemattnagy.wordpress.com”.

I think a lot of the folks that used to find us now see a blank page over at “firejohnfox.wordpress.com”.  I will try to fix this through wordpress.

Of course I am telling people how to find us who can’t find us so I am kind of shouting out into the void.  Obviously if this was a commercial site this would be more of a problem…

 

Domain Addresses Updated

It seems that football coaches are getting a bit smarter than they used to be.  Probably the first thing a coach does when they start moving up the ranks is buy the domain “Fire(insert name here).com”

So to get to this site directly – it is going to be https://firemattnagy.wordpress.com/

Sorry John Fox I gave back the domain but we will still leave the “true” name of the site that way unless I get super industrious and figure out how to change it.

So what points here?

  • FIRERONTURNER.NET – this is a classic and we can’t give it up.  Terrible Ron Turner, with a career of futility who cost the Bears the 2007 Super Bowl, will forever be linked to our lives.  Or at least until the Bears win a Super Bowl in which case maybe we’d forget but that sure seems a long ways away
  • FIRERYANPACE.NET – Ryan wasn’t a coach but still snagged his domain
  • FIREMATTNAGY.NET – Matt Nagy joins the club!  Welcome!  Remember we are die hard Bears fans up in the cheap seats and we want you to succeed.  Sadly, the odds are that you won’t

So there you go.  What is funny is that John Fox’s domain registration was just about to auto renew… but now it’s gone and we have a new victim.

Enjoy!

Also since we are talking about boring site stuff they really have a lot of annoying ads on the mobile plan for wordpress.  Maybe if I am feeling up for it I will spring for an ad free site.  It is just the price of a couple cases of watered down beer.